Southern Brave make it seven from seven to confirm top spot

Laura Wolvaardt’s 56* helped Brave chase their highest target of the season to book their place in the final

ECB Media23-Aug-2025

Laura Wolvaardt passed a thousand competition runs with her knock•Getty Images

Southern Brave 126 for 2 (Wolvaardt 56*, Wong 2-34) beat London Spirit 125 for 8 (Griffith 44, Villiers 3-38) by eight wicketsSouthern Brave made it seven wins in a row in this year’s The Hundred women’s competition with a resounding victory over London Spirit at Lord’s, underscored by a superb partnership of 95 between Maia Bouchier and the stylish South African superstar, Laura Wolvaardt.The result, achieved with six balls to spare, leaves the Spirit hanging on in their quest to break into the final top three. After an uneven performance with the bat – only Cordelia Griffith, Charli Knott and Georgia Redmayne managed double figures – followed by a luckless run in the field, they will have to win their final match against the Invincibles on Monday and hope that other results go their way.The Brave are a brilliantly well-drilled unit. In Lauren Bell they have one of the standout seamers of the tournament who was excellent again here, removing Kira Chathli in her opening set and going for just 18 across her 20. Mady Villiers provided control and potency with her off-breaks, picking up three more wickets; and with the bat they rarely miss.While Bouchier impressed, eventually holing out for 43 from 34 balls, Wolvaardt was irresistible. Coming together after the early dismissal of Danni Wyatt-Hodge, given out leg-before on review to a beauty from Issy Wong, Wolvaardt opened her account with a brace of boundaries driven down the ground, before a stunning cover drive took her into double figures.A subsequent no-look slap off Wong that went for six over midwicket, carrying 74 metres, should have been the standout shot, but that honour fell to her extraordinary one-handed six over long-on. That shot brought up her thousandth run in the history of The Hundred, Wolvaardt becoming just the fourth player to do so, and the first overseas star. Her fifty came up off 31 balls, and she was still there at the death, ensuring that the mighty Brave continued their unbeaten streak.They will now, irrespective of results elsewhere, be guaranteed to finish top of the group going into the knockouts later this week. Rock bottom last year, top this; it’s been an extraordinary turnaround for the Brave.Wolvaardt’s class was recognised with the Meerkat Match Hero award: “I’m so happy that we were able to get the win. It was a nice wicket to bat on, so we did well to restrict them to that total. On a good wicket we wanted to get ahead of the game early. We knew they had a load of world-class spinners in their attack, so we wanted to get off to a fast start. I really enjoy batting with Bouch, we rotated well, and we were both able to find the boundaries as well.”Our bowlers have been absolutely amazing all tournament. The way that Belly and Tilly [Corteen-Coleman] have set the tone up front has been awesome.”

فيديو | ماذا قدم عمر مرموش في مباراة مانشستر سيتي وسندرلاند بـ الدوري الإنجليزي؟

شارك النجم المصري عمر مرموش في مباراة مانشستر سيتي، مساء السبت، ضد نظيره سندرلاند، في إطار منافسات بطولة الدوري الإنجليزي الممتاز.

واستضاف ملعب “الاتحاد” مباراة مانشستر سيتي وسندرلاند في خضم منافسات الجولة الخامسة عشر من الدوري الإنجليزي، موسم 2025/26، حيث حقق السكاي بلوز فوزًا بنتيجة 3/0.

ودخل عمر مرموش كبديل في الدقيقة 69، بعدما دفع به المدرب بيب جوارديولا ليحل محل النجم إيرلينج هالاند.

وسنحت فرصة لـ عمر مرموش في الدقيقة 73، بعدما تلقى الكرة ولكنها جاءت أطول من اللازم بالنسبة له، لتصل أسرع إلى حارس مرمى سندرلاند.

ومرر ريان شرقي الكرة ولكنها تخطت عمر مرموش، لتصل إلى تيجاني ريندرز الذي سددها بجوار القائم، في الدقيقة 74.

وشتت دفاع سندرلاند كرة كانت في طريقها إلى عمر مرموش، في الدقيقة 81، وسط محاولات من المصري للتواجد داخل منطقة الجزاء لاستغلال أي فرصة سانحة للتسجيل.

وتلقى عمر مرموش الكرة وانطلق من الناحية اليسرى للملعب، وأراد التسديد من تلك الجهة ولكن أحد مدافعي سندرلاند ضغط وشتت الهجمة، لتتحول إلى ركنية، في الدقيقة 86.

كما جاءت فرصة جديدة لصالح مرموش في الدقيقة الثالثة من الوقت المحتسب بدلًا من الضائع للشوط الثاني، بعدما تلقى كرة داخل المنطقة وتعامل معها بشكل جيد ولكن ضُغط عليه بطريقة قوية من جانب الدفاع.

The Australia selectors' aversion to risk might have boxed them into a corner

Why the squad for the Perth Test is an opportunity missed

Greg Chappell09-Nov-20253:09

Australia’s Ashes squad: No Konstas, Labuschagne to open?

“A ship is safe in harbour, but that is not what ships are for.” This timeless wisdom speaks to a core dilemma of human endeavour: the choice between safety and potential reward. A ship anchored indefinitely in a quiet port avoids the tempest, but it sacrifices its purpose – slowly decaying into irrelevance.Cricket is fundamentally a game of risk-management. To make runs, a batter must risk playing shots; to take wickets, a bowler must risk getting hit for four. How you manage that risk decides your fate and the team’s on the field.The Australian selectors have taken a safety-first approach to the selection of the squad for the first Test of the Ashes in Perth. The make-up of the squad is not unexpected but I was hoping that they would be bolder and choose a team that would risk surprising the opposition and throw down the gauntlet for one of the most anticipated Ashes contests for many years.Related

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  • Mark Taylor unsure over Cameron Green's position

I do have some sympathy for the selectors as this is not entirely a problem of their making. The traditional supply line of youngsters has been interrupted by professional cricket, meaning that players stay in the domestic system longer, playing for the states, who prioritise winning domestic competitions over producing Australian players.So here we are in Australian cricket. The oldest international team fielded in 90-plus years will take the field in a fortnight. Thirty-five may be the new 30, but I believe that unless a handful of under 25s are going to be debuting in the next six to 12 months, we are going to have a painful regeneration problem when Usman Khawaja, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland and Nathan Lyon leave.Domestic competitions don’t produce Test-ready players; they only identify those with the skills to make it at the top level, so CA must prioritise giving the next generation as much international cricket at the Australia A level as possible to bridge the gap.Now to the series ahead. Perth Stadium is a venue unlike any other in Test cricket. It will be fast and will bounce more than anything that the England players usually play on. This Test will have a big bearing on the outcome of the series, so the team that performs well here will take a big psychological advantage to Brisbane. The first two Tests – at Perth’s pace cauldron and Brisbane’s pink-ball furnace under lights – could decide the urn. Now was a time to be bold.Despite selecting a specialist opener, Jake Weatherald, in the squad, I believe the intention is to send Marnus Labuschagne out to open with Khawaja. This will allow Cameron Green and Beau Webster to play, giving the best balance of batting and bowling in the squad – especially as Green has hardly bowled a ball in anger since his recent back surgery.

Being risk-averse is not being risk-free. By anchoring in the harbour of familiarity, Australia’s selectors may have invited the very storm they sought to avoid

Opening with Labuschagne is extremely risky. He should bat at three, as that is his specialist spot, where he has delivered prolifically. The fact that he is being considered as an opener suggests that the selectors do not have a specialist they trust, and that one or both of Green and Webster are well short of the bowling loads required to get through a Test match.Ian Chappell and Ricky Ponting were exceptional No. 3 batters for Australia in their time. That doesn’t mean that they would have been as successful had they been press-ganged into opening. They were often batting early in the innings but the mindset to walk out to open the innings is subtly different.Marnus has reinvented himself this summer with a return to the intent that he showed early in his Test career. For the past few seasons he has looked like someone who was batting to not get out. This risk-averse attitude to batting actually increases the risk of getting out. In this state of mind, the feet do not move and the runs dry up. Even if one succeeds in not getting out, one doesn’t make many runs because the number of deliveries that you can attack becomes limited. It would be a shame to risk short-circuiting his return to Test cricket by batting him out of position.Mitch Marsh is the choice I would have preferred. It would have been a left-field choice, but this is a venue where he has an advantage over all other candidates. He grew up in Perth so the bounce would not worry him; he is one of the best players of pace in the country, and he could have bowled some meaningful overs to support the frontline quicks.If they do go with Labuschagne at the top of the order that will mean Green will be forced to bat at No. 3 again. It is a position for which he is not suited, so all of a sudden, the Australian batting order is dangerously unbalanced.Usman Khawaja will be in the hot seat against the pace of Mark Wood and Jofra Archer•Getty ImagesIn time, I expect Green to slot into the No. 4 position he is eminently more suited for. The other reason that I would not send him in early is that, if fit, he will be expected to bowl important overs, so he will need time to prepare to bat rather than put the pads straight on.England have put nearly all their eggs in the pace basket, bringing a septet of fast bowlers with whom to challenge what they believe to be a fragile batting line-up. They have prioritised the fitness of Jofra Archer and Mark Wood for this series, so I expect them both to play in Perth and in Brisbane, and then they will rotate the rest of the pace squad through the remaining Tests.If Archer and Wood are both fit for purpose, England could surprise the Australians on a surface that will favour pace. Very few people enjoy batting against real pace. We would all rather bat against medium-pacers and spinners, but at this level, it has to be done. Normally it is one or two really quick bowlers in the line-up and then the pace drops off. Very few teams in history have three or four in the ranks who get it through at over 140kph. That will get your attention and it will require reflexes and concentration of the highest order. The ageing Australian line-up might be put under the pump if the England attack clicks.Khawaja is the oldest opener to play a Test for Australia since Lindsay Hassett did it in his final Test at The Oval, in 1953. Hassett scored 53 in the first innings of a Test that England won by eight wickets. England had Fred Trueman, who was a genuine quick, in their attack, but Alec Bedser and Trevor Bailey were medium-fast at best. Ussie turns 39 during the series, so he will be tested by a procession of fast bowlers. His potential partner is a 31-year-old debutant or a makeshift opener also in his 30s. England will take a huge advantage if they can make early inroads in the Australia batting regularly in the series.The selectors have boxed themselves into a corner. Over the past year or so they have shied away from bold calls, leaving themselves no real option now but the conservative line. They were risk-averse in picking the team. They missed an opportunity to lay down the gauntlet at one of the world’s unique venues. And they are actually taking a huge risk by playing batters out of position.Being risk-averse is not being risk-free. By anchoring in the harbour of familiarity, Australia’s selectors may have invited the very storm they sought to avoid. Perth demanded courage. The Ashes demand it. A ship is safe in harbour, but that is not what ships are for.

Wyatt-Hodge, Strano extend Hurricanes' lead at the top

Wyatt-Hodge scored her fourth half-century of the season while Strano starred with five wickets

AAP01-Dec-2025Hobart Hurricanes have reinforced their standing as the team to beat in the WBBL, bolstering their grip on first spot with an 81-run demolition of Melbourne Stars on DLS method at Bellerive Oval.Danni Wyatt-Hodge’s classy 71 paced Hurricanes’ imposing 176 for 4 from 17 rain-reduced overs in the top-of-the-table blockbuster on Monday night, before Molly Strano (5 for 16) reduced Stars to a paltry 98 in response, after they were set an adjusted target of 180.Wyatt-Hodge moved past Meg Lanning to the head of the Golden Bat standings with her fourth half-century of the season, before pouching three catches.She started slowly with two off her first 11 deliveries, before blossoming in her 47-ball knock.”Sometimes you’ve just got to ride that wave and Lizzy (Lee) was smashing it at the other end, so I didn’t need to panic,” Wyatt-Hodge said.”It was just a matter of digging in, keeping the intent and staying brave. Hopefully we can keep the form up – everyone’s playing really well.”Hard-hitting South African Lizelle Lee was the early aggressor, but a 33-minute rain delay stalled her momentum and she holed out for 32 just after the resumption.Nat Sciver-Brunt (31) found Danielle Gibson in the deep, before captain Elyse Villani was run out late.Stars started horribly in reply and never recovered as their four-game winning streak came to a crashing halt, with tail-ender Sasha Moloney (31) offering the only resistance.Rhys McKenna (1) was trapped plumb in front by a hooping Nicola Carey inswinger, before Linsey Smith (2-29) captured the key scalp of Lanning (9), bowled after missing a cut shot.Smith dismissed Stars skipper Annabel Sutherland (11), before fellow spinner Molly Strano came on and bagged three wickets in her first over.Wyatt-Hodge snared a left-handed blinder at point to remove Amy Jones (19), before Marizanne Kapp (0) was caught behind and Gibson (1) holed out.Strano then picked up a fourth wicket with just her seventh ball when Kim Garth (3) offered Wyatt-Hodge another catch.The offspinner’s fifth scalp was Moloney, caught by player of the match Wyatt-Hodge.

Yash Dhull: 'My first intent is to always score runs and score them quickly'

Delhi and North Zone batter shows his range during his century against East Zone in the Duleep Trophy

Ashish Pant31-Aug-2025 [I am from Delhi and there, we play aggressive cricket.]This one line pretty much sums up Yash Dhull, the cricketer. The 22-year-old is continuously on the move when batting. He walks down to the fast bowlers, gives the spinners the charge and is always on the lookout for the quick singles when not hitting boundaries.It was the theme of Dhull’s innings both times during North Zone’s Duleep Trophy match against East Zone at the BCCI’s Centre of Excellence Ground in Bengaluru. The aggression cost him his wicket relatively early in the first innings on 39, but against a weary East Zone attack, he ensured he didn’t miss out once again.Dhull stroked his way to 133 off just 157 balls on the third day of the Duleep Trophy opener, adding a 240-run stand with captain Ankit Kumar as North Zone sealed their semi-final spot. He not only tackled the spinners with a mix of caution and controlled aggression, but he was equally adept against pace.Related

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He scored 86 off 104 against spinners and 47 off 53 against the fast bowlers, with shots all around the field. Apart from defending solidly and using his feet to throw the bowlers off their lengths, he was innovative too: two upper-cuts against fast bowler Suraj Sindhu Jaiswal, two paddle sweeps against left-arm spinner Manishi and a thrash through the covers off pacer Mukhtar Hussain.”My simple plan was that I would play my game. The wicket was seaming a little but I had planned that I will play attacking cricket,” Dhull said after his innings. “My first intent is to always score runs and score them quickly. I was also carrying plenty of confidence behind me. And I came here and played accordingly.”Dhull reached his fifty off 49 balls and his century off 112. There were a few nervous moments when he was stuck in the 90s for a while, and he played and missed several times, particularly against Mohammed Shami. But Dhull ensured that he didn’t lose focus.”Sometimes you collect runs quickly and then there are times when you can’t score and you have to bide your time”, he said. “That’s what happened. But I was calm, staying in the present and not taking any pressure. I was waiting for that right ball to score.”Yash Dhull plays the ball away on the off side•PTI Dhull is coming into the Duleep Trophy in top form. He was Delhi’s second-highest run-scorer in the 2024-25 Ranji Trophy with 444 runs in ten innings at 49.33 and then had a stellar Delhi Premier League where he recorded 435 runs in nine innings at an average of 87 and strike rate of 167.31.Things are on the up now, but the circumstances were quite different just a year and a bit back in June, when Dhull had to undergo surgery to repair a 17mm hole in his heart. A cricketer is always on the move, jumping from one tournament to another, from one city to another, training, following a strict routine. For close to two months, though, Dhull’s life came to a standstill.”That time taught me a lot about myself, about my game, about my lifestyle, how to grow, how to improve,” Dhull said. “At the same time, I have to handle such things. There will be ups and downs. I have to go through them and move on. Right now, I just want to stay in the present. I don’t want to think about the past or future.”So much has happened. Now, I just enjoy my game. I spend time on it and that gives me all the happiness.”Dhull says he “didn’t have any option” but to get the surgery done. What he ensured during that time was not to think too much about the future. During the downtime, he also picked up a hobby. “I used to play snooker a lot and spent a lot of time there,” Dhull said. “That game also taught me a lot. My mind often used to wander around, I wasn’t concentrating much. That game taught me to stay more focused.”With a life-altering experience behind him, Dhull is now trying to take it one day at a time. He next has his sights set on South Zone, and having started on a positive note, he will hope his stocks continue to rise through the season.

Howe can fix Gordon blow by unleashing Newcastle "monster" in new position

Newcastle United’s win over Athletic Bilbao in the Champions League on Wednesday evening was much-needed, but Eddie Howe knows his side have not yet responded to the bitter Premier League defeat at West Ham United last weekend.

Now, they have the opportunity to do that against Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium. This is a tough match, with Keith Andrews’ side rallying after a difficult summer transfer window and defying a few by easing away from the relegation pack so far this season.

The Bees have lost just one of their five home fixtures in the Premier League this term, a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City, and, alarmingly, United have not won away from St. James’ Park, losing three in a row in the top flight. They do, however, have a strong recent record against the Londoners.

Newcastle Recent Record vs Brentford

Season

Competition

Result

24/25

Premier League (H)

2-1 win

24/25

Carabao Cup (H)

3-1 win

24/25

Premier League (A)

4-2 loss

23/24

Premier League (A)

4-2 win

23/24

Premier League (H)

1-0 win

Data via Transfermarkt

With the November international break looming large, this is the perfect opportunity for the Toon to prove they have what it takes to establish consistency both on Tyneside and on the road.

However, they will have to do this without Anthony Gordon, who has been ruled out after injuring his hip in midweek.

The latest on Anthony Gordon's fitness

Gordon has not been in great form for a while. Across his past 19 Premier League outings, the England international has failed to score or assist a goal.

But the 24-year-old is still one of the most talented wingers in the country, and he will be missed against a resilient Brentford outfit.

Howe intimated in his pre-match press conference that Gordon will be unavailable, having suffered a recurrence of the hip injury that has plagued him this year after about an hour of action in the Champions League.

Of course, we can’t ignore the frustrating watch that preceded the setback. Chronicle Live gave Gordon a 5/10 match rating and commented that he didn’t look right down the left channel.

Gordon will be sidelined for this one, but Howe may well have considered replacing him anyway after a tough spell.

Harvey Barnes is the most likely candidate to move onto the left wing, but there’s an even more left-field option that the manager may want to consider, especially after Joelinton found form in the centre of the park several days ago.

Howe can unleash Gordon replacement in new role

Newcastle have enough resources available to find that elusive away win without Gordon in the mix. But it will require a big performance, with players stepping up and kick-starting their season.

Among these is Jacob Ramsey, who joined Newcastle from Aston Villa for £39m plus £4m in add-ons this summer. The Boyhood Villa fan has struggled with injuries over the past few years, but he was a popular and talented figure in the Midlands, and there’s a sense from Newcastle’s rivals that they have lost a potential superstar.

Fitness issues have plagued him at the start of his career in a new setting, and because of this, Ramsey has only featured seven times across all competitions, with just one start in the Premier League.

It was a dour day in the capital for Newcastle last weekend, but Ramsey showed something of his quality when entering the fray after the interval, with Sofascore recording that he completed two dribbles, made three recoveries and won four of six duels throughout the second half.

Given the robustness of Newcastle’s central engine room, it would be foolish to unleash Ramsey in the ten berth against tough-tackling Brentford. However, he has the dribbling ability and creativity to service Woltemade from the left, leaving Howe to pick one of Barnes or Jacob Murphy to play from the right flank.

The former Villan played like a man with a desire to nail down a starting spot at the London Stadium, and while his efforts were to no avail, his commitment cannot be questioned.

This is a versatile playmaker whose skills could damage the home side from the wing. When played out wide, Ramsey has historically had something of a penchant for an evenly spread output.

Jacob Ramsey – Career Stats by Position

Position

Apps

Goals (assists)

Left midfield

70

12 (12)

Central midfield

67

11 (4)

Attacking midfield

59

17 (10)

Left wing

8

1 (2)

Right midfield

4

0 (0)

Centre-forward

2

2 (0)

Data via Transfermarkt

Hailed as a “monster” of an attacking midfielder by analyst Ryan McKeown, Ramsey’s pace, fluid movement and impressive athleticism – when at full fitness – now need to be channelled into something prolific. Howe signed the player with a vision in his mind, and now he must put that plan into action.

After all, despite a tough year on the Englishman’s part, he has shown his quality through his underlying data, with FBref revealing he ranks among the top 5% of attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues over the past yerar for pass completion, the top 9% for tackles and the top 6% for success rate when taking on opponents per 90.

Now, the impetus is on building up match fluidity and avoiding another injury setback. Should Ramsey succeed in this, he might even come to pile pressure on Gordon for a place on the left flank.

Newcastle have options as they prepare to take on Brentford at the Gtech, and after signing a talent such as Ramsey for a hefty fee this summer, surely this is the perfect time for him to announce himself in the Premier League under Howe’s wing.

PIF's "massive overpay" is quickly becoming the new Almiron at Newcastle

Newcastle have struggled to get the best out of this star this season.

ByAngus Sinclair Nov 7, 2025

How lucky were India on their last tour of Australia? A statistical model tells us

An analysis of expected runs and wickets, based on false shots played by batters

Kartikeya Date24-Oct-2024Rishabh Pant made 146 in 111 balls against England in India’s first innings of the Test at Edgbaston in 2022. It remains the second-quickest three-figure innings by an Indian batter in Test cricket since records for deliveries faced became available. The quickest was Mohammed Azharuddin’s 109 in 77 balls against South Africa in November 1996.How good was Pant’s innings? This is a difficult question to answer well, mostly because it is under-determined. For instance, it is not difficult to imagine that if Cheteshwar Pujara played the same 111 balls that Pant faced, he would make different choices and score a different (and almost certainly smaller) number of runs. Would Pujara be more or less likely than Pant to survive for those 111 deliveries? More generally, if the average batter made the choices that Pant made on those 111 deliveries, how many runs would result? And how many times would the average batter be dismissed, having made those choices? What are the expected runs and expected dismissals for the choices Pant made?The answer, according to the model that is described below, can be as follows.Of the 111 balls Pant faced, 73 were from right-arm quick bowlers and 38 from finger spinners. A summary of the shots Pant attempted is in the table below. xR is the expected runs for the average left-hand batter against the given bowling style when playing a specific shot.For example, Pant attempted to pull the right-arm fast-medium bowler nine times (eight of those deliveries were legal) and scored 16 runs. In the record, a left-hand batter has been dismissed 54 times in 485 false shots on the pull against the right-arm pacer. A false shot on the pull for this match-up produces 358 runs off 473 deliveries, while a successful pull shot produces 2464 (off 996). Pant played two false shots in those nine attempts. The expected wickets (xW) for those nine attempts is 0.23 (2*54/485). The expected runs (xR) figure is 18.2.Summing this up for all the shots that Pant attempted against each bowling style, and applying those to the average left-hand batter, it turns out that the average left-hand batter would have scored 97.5 runs off 111 balls and been dismissed 2.4 times, against bowlers of the type Pant faced in that innings.

The model used in this article relies on the ball-by-ball record collected by ESPNcricinfo, which lists what shot was attempted off which delivery and whether or not the batter was in control. The model also considers what style the bowler was bowling, and whether the batter is a right-hander or a left-hander. It is illustrated using examples in the table below.

When the left-hand batter sweeps the offspinner and is in control, 2.09 runs are scored per shot. When the left-hand batter successfully sweeps the slow left-arm orthodox bowler, 1.81 runs result per shot. When the left-hand batter is not in control of the sweep shot against the offbreak bowler, 0.118 dismissals occur; the corresponding figure against the slow left-arm orthodox bowler is 0.097 dismissals.To round out the information in the table, the average left-hand batter fails to control the sweep against the offspin bowler 33.5% of the time (1686 out of 5025 attempts fail), while 30.8% of sweeps against the slow left-arm orthodox bowler (1244 out of 4039) fail. For comparison, when the left-hand batter attempts to drive the offbreak bowler, the expected-runs figure is 0.89, the expected dismissals 0.141, and 9% (2354 out of 26109) attempts fail. The sweep involves greater risk, greater reward, and is more difficult to pull off than the drive. This is also why, typically, the field is set to defend the drive more often than it is to defend the sweep.Readers will note that when the ball is turning more, the drive and the sweep both carry greater risk than usual. It would be reasonable to think that the expected-dismissals figure for the drive or the sweep on a turning pitch should be higher than it would be on a flat pitch.The way the model used in this article accounts for the conditions is through the false shots record. On a turning pitch, the batter is likely to play false shots more often. For example, suppose that a left-hand batter attempts the sweep ten times against an offspin bowler on a flat pitch, and plays two false shots, instead of the expected three or four. The expected runs for these ten attempts would be 17.7. The eight successful attempts would generate 16.72, and the two failed attempts 0.94. The expected dismissals would be 0.24.On a turning pitch, the batter is likely to miss more sweeps. Let’s say the batter misses five sweeps. In this case, xR would be 12.8 runs, and xW would be 0.59. In this way, the xR and xW for every ball, and therefore for every batter and every bowler in every innings, can be estimated. The essential intuition here is that it is the false shot that makes a dismissal possible. When false shots from a particular shot type are more frequent, dismissal from that shot category is more likely too. The conditions only matter to the extent that they modify the likelihood of the occurrence of the false shot. In other words, conditions are easy or difficult depending on how often false shots occur in them.The same can also be said for bowlers. Facing James Anderson (right-arm fast-medium, under ESPNcricinfo’s classification) is a more daunting proposition than facing the average right-arm fast-medium bowler in a Test match. Anderson is more daunting because he challenges the middle of the bat more often than the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does. By evaluating expected dismissals based on the occurrence of false shots, the model accounts for this distinction. For instance, in England, Anderson induces a false shot every 4.9 balls, while the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does so every 5.1 balls. In Australia, Anderson induces a false shot every 6.4 balls, while the average right-arm fast-medium bowler does so every 6.2 balls. The model will return a higher expected-wickets figure than average against Anderson in England, and a lower xW than average against Anderson in Australia.R Ashwin induces a false shot every 5.4 balls in India, while the average offspinner does so every 6.2 balls. Outside India the gap is narrower (6.9 balls per false shot against Ashwin, 7.2 balls per false shot against the average offspinner). The model is able to accommodate these distinctions.The table below lists the 15 Test innings since 2014 with the highest xW. These could be considered the 15 most unlikely Test innings, in terms of their size and length, in the last ten years.

The table below lists the 15 unluckiest match bowling efforts in Test cricket since 2014. Mohammed Shami collected 182 for 2 at The Oval in 2018. He induced 107 false shots in the match. Over the 10,770 deliveries Shami has bowled in his Test career since the start of 2014, his xW/xR is 228.5/5775.0. He actual figures are 212/5896. His expected career bowling average since the start of 2014 is 25.7; his actual bowling average since then is 27.8.Jasprit Bumrah’s 0 for 92 in the 2021 World Test Championship final also features in the list below. He induced 55 false shots in that match without getting a wicket. This was one of only four instances of a bowler going wicketless in a Test since 2014 while producing an expected wickets total in excess of five wickets. Of the 339 instances since 2014 when a bowler has bowled at least 15 overs in a match and gone wicketless, the average expected wickets for such a bowler have been 1.77. Over his 37-Test career so far, Bumrah’s xW/xR is 168.3/3498.0. His actual career haul is 164/3365. His expected career average (20.8) closely matches his actual career average (20.51).

Only 1.6% of individual Test innings involve an xW of 3.5 or more. About 5% of Test innings involve 2.5 xW or more (see the graph below). The average individual three-figure score in a Test match involves 2.72 xW. The average innings where the xW is 1.0 (that is, between 0.50 and 1.49) produces 31.2 runs. The distribution of all innings and centuries in the graph below shows how much luckier a batter has to be than average to reach a century.Of the 792 Test hundreds scored since the start of 2014, only 41 have come in innings where the expected average (xR divided by xW) of the rest of the batters in the innings is less than 20 runs per wicket. Only eight have come in innings where xAve for the rest of the batters is less than 15 runs per wicket. These are:1.Aiden Markram’s 106 (103 balls) against India in Cape Town, 2024
2.KL Rahul’s 101 (137) against South Africa in Centurion, 2023
3.Steven Smith’s 109 (202) against India in Pune, 2017
4.Dimuth Karunaratne’s 107(174) against India in Bangalore, 2022
5.Ajinkya Rahane’s 103 (154) against England at Lord’s, 2014
6.Dimuth Karunaratne’s 158 not out (222) against South Africa in Galle, 2018
7.Dean Elgar’s 136 (228) against England at The Oval, 2017
8.Dinesh Chandimal’s 119 (186) against West Indies in St Lucia, 2018
Kartikeya DateThe xR and xW models extend the intuition underlying the control measurement to specify risks. For instance, India’s infamous 36 all out innings had an expected wickets/runs of 3.2/47.1 from those 128 balls. India’s fourth innings in Sydney on that tour lasted 786 balls from which they scored 334 for 5. The expected wickets/runs from those deliveries were 13.5/376.1.England made 420 all out in 613 balls in the third innings in Hyderabad in January this year. The expected wickets/runs from those 613 balls were 15.7/391.3. Over the course of the series, the Indian batting produced an expected average of 42.2 (their actual average in the series was 39.7), while England’s expected average was 26.0 (actual, 25.6). The figures belie the idea that it was a close series and that England were close to winning it. India were only 28 runs away from a 5-0 result.In Australia in 2020-21, India were decidedly the luckier of the two sides. Their expected average with the bat was 29.3 (actual 30.4). Australia’s expected average was 37.0 (actual 29.3). Essentially, enough Australian batters fell to early mistakes to nullify the difference in quality between the Australian and Indian attacks. The gap between the two attacks was narrower in the first two Tests (Australian batting: 32.7 xAve, Indian batting: 27.4 xAve) in 2020, than it was in the last two Tests, played in 2021 (Australian batting: 40.0 xAve, Indian batting: 30.0 xAve) after India had lost several players to injuries.The model could be modified, for instance, to consider the innings of the match in which the shot is attempted, to add greater texture. For a right-hand batter sweeping the slow left-arm orthodox bowler, the expected-wickets figure from innings one through innings four is 0.110, 0.111, 0.136, 0.123. In other words, the chance of a dismissal for a false shot on the sweep is between 11% and 14%. The conversion rate of false shot to dismissal is only marginally affected by the innings in the match.The temptation to build ever more elaborate sets of categories should be resisted. The larger the number of categories, the smaller the number of deliveries in each category, and consequently, the less stable the average expectation from each category. With more categories, it also becomes more difficult to keep them apart and ensure that they do not describe overlapping features. For example, ESPNcricinfo’s classification includes four categories of right-arm seam bowlers – right-arm medium, right-arm medium-fast, right-arm fast-medium, and right-arm fast. It becomes difficult to distinguish between the middle two. But it is also, on the other hand, easy to see why these categories might be useful. Consider, for instance, Colin de Grandhomme (medium), Chaminda Vaas, especially after his injury (medium-fast), Glenn McGrath (fast-medium), and Brett Lee (fast). The speed gun readings suggest that fast-medium bowlers fall back into the medium-fast category at times during Test matches, especially in flat batting conditions, when there’s a lot of bowling to be done. If anything, having a two-pronged classification of seam bowlers – fast and medium – would be sufficient. Ideally, an expected runs/wickets model would include the trajectory of the delivery and the batter’s control as its inputs. Absent this, the categories provided by ESPNcricinfo offer a usable proxy.This expected runs/wickets model is relatively easy to implement. They provide a baseline expectation and make it possible to measure both the relative quality of the teams involved in a match as well as relative good (or bad) fortune enjoyed by each. A model along the lines described in this article should be available in the coverage of every Test match. The figures used in this article include Tests completed on or before September 25, 2024

Roland-Jones six-for leads Middlesex fightback

Toby Roland-Jones led Middlesex’s fightback with his best Rothesay County Championship bowling figures of the season after promotion rivals Derbyshire had threatened to dominate with the bat on the opening day at Lord’s.Caleb Jewell and Harry Came both hit half-centuries as they forged a century partnership to give the visitors a strong platform at 124 for one before Roland-Jones struck back with four wickets in the space of 27 balls.The former Middlesex captain eventually finished with six for 77, while Ryan Higgins and Zafar Gohar shared the other four wickets evenly as Derbyshire, who began the day with a 24-point gap to second-placed Glamorgan, were bowled out for 283.In reply, Middlesex openers Sam Robson and Josh de Caires trimmed that deficit slightly prior to stumps, reaching 12 without loss.The Seaxes’ pace attack included two red-ball debutants in the shape of Olly Stone, signed on a short-term loan from Nottinghamshire, and 18-year-old Sebastian Morgan – yet there were slim pickings for either when the visitors won the toss and chose to bat on a benign surface.Higgins achieved the solitary breakthrough of the morning session, pinning Luis Reece in front of his stumps with a ball that nipped back down the slope, but Jewell and Came batted through to lunch largely untroubled.The Australian was quick to punish anything loose outside off stump, dispatching an early short ball from Roland-Jones to the cover fence before handing the same treatment to a Stone half-volley.Came settled in following an uncertain start, when Stone beat his outside edge a couple of times and began to take advantage of the short boundary on one side, keeping pace with his partner.It was Jewell who reached his half-century first, nudging a single from the opening ball of the afternoon session, while Came’s arrival at that landmark was more eye-catching as he pulled Stone into the Mound Stand for six.The pair extended their partnership to 105 before it was eventually broken by Higgins, returning for a second stint from the Nursery End and knocking back the left-hander’s off stump for 56.Derbyshire skipper Wayne Madsen, marking his 500th overall appearance in the county’s colours, was soon up and running with two quick fours off Higgins, but his side’s momentum was stemmed by a destructive spell from Roland-Jones.Came was first to go, caught behind off an inside edge for 64 and Brooke Guest was castled having misjudged the line before Roland-Jones got another delivery to rear back and trap former Middlesex man Martin Andersson leg before.Roland-Jones claimed the prize wicket of Madsen in identical fashion to leave Derbyshire apparently wilting at 177 for six, only for Anuj Dal and Zak Chappell to mount a recovery with their stand of 48.Dal eventually departed on the stroke of tea, succumbing to a thin edge off Gohar and the spinner also picked up the wicket of Chappell, but Ben Aitchison’s watchful 36 secured his side a batting bonus point.However, Roland-Jones wrapped up the innings by having both Aitchison and Jack Morley caught behind with the new ball and Middlesex successfully negotiated the day’s remaining seven overs without alarm.

Fabrizio Romano reveals Lisandro Martinez return date in "boost for Man Utd"

Manchester United have been boosted by the news that key centre-back Lisandro Martinez has returned to full training after a long injury absence.

After a concerning start to the season, things really feel like they are falling into place for the Red Devils, following three wins in a row in the Premier League, including memorable victory away to rivals and champions Liverpool.

Ruben Amorim has overcome a hugely testing period and now feels like the right man to take United forward, and having as many players available as possible can only be a good thing, with one game a week this season and no European football helping in that respect.

One player who Amorim has had to do without for many months is Martinez, with the Argentina World Cup winner not featuring since damaging knee ligaments at the beginning of February, in a cruel blow for the defender.

The 27-year-old is arguably United’s strongest centre-back, so not having him available for such an extended period of time has been far from ideal, but ahead of the trip to Nottingham Forest on Saturday afternoon, some great news has emerged regarding his fitness.

Martinez to return to Man Utd action in November

Taking to X on Thursday, Fabrizio Romano confirmed that Martinez is now back in training for Manchester United, aiming for a return on the pitch in November.

This is fantastic news for anyone of a United persuasion, with Martinez’s tenacity, quality and winning mentality such a loss over the past eight months or so. It has also left Amorim delighted, with the manager saying: “It’s really good. He gives use that edge in every training session, that is also really good for us.”

The Argentine is a hugely popular figure at Old Trafford, playing with so much passion, and Casemiro has heaped praise on him as a character.

“Licha is on the final straight. He is a soldier who works so hard. He is always in the gym working hard. He is a machine that works so hard. He is one of those players that loves to work hard. It is a pleasure to have him here, he works so much. We arrived [today] at 9am and it is now 4pm and he continues working.”

Where Lisandro Martinez ranks among Man Utd's highest-earning players

It is clearly going to take Martinez some time to get back to his very best, given the severity of his injury, but assuming he makes a full recovery and returns as the player of old eventually, he can continue to be a huge player for United for years to come.

Man Utd now targeting Angelo Stiller as Jason Wilcox personal involvement revealed

Man United are looking to strengthen in the middle of the park, and Stiller has now emerged as a target.

By
Dominic Lund

Oct 31, 2025

He is tailor-made to thrive in Amorim’s back three, bringing the ball out with quality and purpose, and he even has the characteristics to potentially be a future captain of the Red Devils if Bruno Fernandes moves on before him, endearing himself to the fans with his love for the club.

Switch Hit: Black Caps and Pat's back knack

England have arrived in New Zealand for their white-ball tour, but all the noise is about the upcoming Ashes. Alan Gardner is joined by Andrew Miller and Matt Roller to catch you up on the latest

ESPNcricinfo staff14-Oct-2025England have started out on their winter touring commitments, arriving in New Zealand for T20I and ODI series ahead of the Ashes in Australia. On this week’s pod, Alan Gardner is joined by Andrew Miller and Matt Roller to talk through the latest – notably the increasingly urgent updates from Australia on Pat Cummins’ fitness. Also on the menu: T20 World Cup preparations, Jacob Bethell’s mission to impress, and the start of the Ashes phoney war.

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